Introduction to Fundamental Analysis

Introduction to Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis studies the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity, like a stock or currency. It attempts to predict price action and trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy, societal and other factors within a business cycle framework.

If you think of the markets as a big clock, fundamentals are the gears and springs that move the hands around the face. Anyone can tell you what time it is now, but the fundamentalist knows about the inner workings that move the clock's hands towards times ( or prices ) in the future.

Are you a Technician or Fundamentalist ?

There's a tendency to pigeonhole traders into two distinct schools : fundamental or technical. In fact, most smart traders favor a blended approach versus being a purist of either type.
Fundamentalists need to keep an eye on signals derived from price charts, while few technicians can afford to completely ignore impending economic data, critical political decisions or pressing societal issues that influence price action.

Forecasting Economic conditions using Models

Fundamental analysis is very effective at forecasting economic conditions, but not necessarily exact market prices. Studying GDP forecasts or employment reports can give you a fairly clear picture of an economy's health and the forces at work behind it. But you still need a method to translate that into specific trade entry and exit points.

The bridge between fundamental data and a specific trading strategy usually comes from a trader model. These models use current and historical empirical data to estimate future prices and translate those into specific trades.

Beware of "Analysis Paralysis"

Forecasting models are both art and science, with so many different approaches that traders can get overloaded. It can be tough to decide when you know enough to pull the trigger on a trade with confidence.

Many traders switch to technical analysis at this point to test their hunches and see when price patterns suggest an entry.

Look for Fundamental Drivers first

The fundamentals include everything that makes a country and its currency tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events.

That said, not every development will move a country's currency. Try to start by identifying the most influential contributors to this mix versus following every fundamental out there.

Good Luck !
To Your Trading Success

Wingcent Ning
Success-Biz Marketing
wingcent@gmail.com
http://mysignatureforex.blogspot.com
Singapore

What is Fundamental Analysis ?

What is Fundamental Analysis ?

Fundamental Analysis in Forex is a type of market analysis which involves studying of the economic situation of countries to trade currencies more effectively.

It gives information on how the big political and economical events influence currency market. Figures and statements given in speeches by important politicians and economists are known among the traders as economical announcements that have great impact on currency market moves. In particular, announcements related to United States economy and politics are the primary to keep an eye on.

What is economic calendar ?

Economic calendar is created by economists where they predict different economics figures and values according to previous months. It contains next data : Date — Time — Currency — Data Released — Actual — Forecast — Previous

For example : If the forecast is better than the previous figure, then US dollar usually is going to strengthen against other currencies. But when news are due, traders have to check the actual data.

If to look at oil prices, a rising price will result in weakening of currencies for countries which depend on huge oil import, e.g. America, Japan. A good example of detailed economic calendar can be found here : Forex Economic Calendar

Whose speeches to keep an eye on ?

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of USA, Secretary of the Treasury, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and so on. Speeches of those prominent people are watched closely by traders.

What are the most powerful figures that move Forex market ?

Interest Rate

Traditionally, if a country raises its interest rates, its currency will strengthen because investors will shift their assets to that country to gain higher returns.

Employment Situation

Decreases in the payroll employment are considered as signs of a weak economic activity that could eventually lead to lower interest rates, which has negative impact on the currency.

Trade balance, budget and treasury budget

A country that has a significant Trade Balance deficit will generally have a weak currency as there will be continuous commercial sellings of its currency.

Gross Domestic Product ( GDP )

GDP is reported quarterly and is followed very closely as it is a primary indicator of the strength of economic activity. A high GDP figure is usually followed by expectations of higher interest rates, which is mostly positive for the currency.

Less powefull economic indicators are :

Retail sales

It is the first real indicator of the strength of consumer expenditure.

Durable goods

Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates, which is usually supportive for a currency.

How do traders use all this ?

There are few useful tips that can be followed :

1. ) Keep an economic calendar on hand. Watch for the events when data are due to be released.

2. ) Know what indicator is gaining the most of attention at any given time as it becomes a catalyst for future price moves. For example, when the U.S. dollar is weak traders will watch closely the inflation indicator.

3. ) When the difference between the expectations and real results occur, watch for corrections in the market price moves.

4. ) Pay attention to news revisions if any, the situation on the market can change quickly.

Another important thing to consider — your Broker !

Because of the high volume of trades made at the time of important economic announcements some brokers may block new orders from being conducted.

For traders it means they should enter the trade before the "major action" begins and, what is more important, they must always have their protective stops placed. Being not able to access the trade desk to close your losing position in time is the most frustrating thing traders should always try to avoid.

Good Luck !
To Your Trading Success

Wingcent Ning
Success-Biz Marketing
wingcent@gmail.com
http://mysignatureforex.blogspot.com
Singapore